Total Engineering Seats in India & some conjectures about IT

This document contains the total number of engineering seats in each of the major states of India. Some of the southern states have a huge number of seats relative to the demand and hence some seats are going vacant. This 'some' is about 50000 seats in case of Tamil Nadu. Recently, this has been observed in Northern States like Haryana as well. An interesting thing to note here is that the number of Engineering seats in the city of Pune is greater than the combined total of 7 States. Overall, there are 7.3 lakh engineering seats in India.

These numbers partly explain why IT companies are setting up shop in Bhubneshwar, Jaipur, Indore,Ahmedabad and Lucknow but not in Patna, Jamshedpur, Ranchi, Shimla, Guwahati and Panaji.Neither are they likely to do so despite the fact that some of these states do send students to other states in large numbers and despite the fact that quality of life in some of the latter group of cities is comparable to the former and might be better in some. When the new private engineering colleges come up, their students are below employable standards for some years. These students are employed for low wages by small IT companies mostly focused on domestic IT market. Here, they polish their skills or learn the new ones in 2 to 3 years and move into bigger and more professionally managed companies. Due to this continuous poaching, the smaller companies would vanish if there was no availability of large number of fresh Engineers willing to work for them. Gradually, quality of newly setup Engineering colleges and hence the quality of students improves thus boosting the supply of good local talent. Also ,some of the small IT companies may grow bigger and better and start attracting talented people who left their home state/region to join bigger companies. Due to this competition for talent, apart from a desire to lower operational costs, the big companies might set up shop in the small city thus improving the Eco-system further. This is not possible in States who only have a couple of thousand Engineering seats.

The economics of an autorickshaw in Delhi

Happened to talk to an auto rickshawallah in Delhi recently. Some interesting insights though not verified. Since they are coming directly from the horse's mouth,should be generally true:
1.There are 90k auto rickshaw permits in Delhi and new ones are not being issued.
2.One auto rickshaw driver who owns the auto-rickshaw,earns on an average Rs25k per month.
3. Some auto rickshaw drivers rent out theirs for night shift @250 per night + 50%of cost of maintenance.
4.An auto rickshaw from outside Delhi is fined Rs 5k as soon as he enters Delhi. Vice versa is not true.
5. The permit can be sold for upwards of Rs 3lakhs which together with the cost of vehicle at about Rs 1.25 lakh results in on road price of about Rs 4.25 lakhs.
6. The permit regime for Cars is liberal making it practically cheaper to have a Car on road than rickshaw.
7. The per km fare of rickshaw is Rs 4.5 and the auto rickshaw unions will shortly stage a strike to demand an increase. An average Car gives a mileage of 12km per liter and a liter of Petrol costs about Rs 50. So running cost per km are about Rs 4. But Car can accommodate 4-5 people, hence at maximum utilisation auto rickshaw is about 50% more expensive.
8. Due to the latest fare policy, per which public transport costs Rs 1-2 per Km, some people are reverting to use of auto rickshaws when travelling in groups. These people might eventually shift to personal vehicles. The expanded network of Delhi Metro may reverse some of that but cannot decisively arrest this trend.

Blessed thus by Delhi government, Cabs services in Delhi are going to grow a lot. After all ,Delhi has to become a 'global' city. Tata Nano, the new Rs 1 lakh car can only make the matters more interesting. Tatas were once asked to take over Delhi transport corporation. This might as well be the route they agreed to.

RBI gives 'Freedom' to open Branches

RBI recently gave Freedom to Banks to open branches in Centers with population less than 50,000 as per the report of a group constituted by it. This blog had earlier tried to analyse RBI's branch 'expansion' policy.

• The Branch 'Expansion' policy was originally a branch restriction policy to regulate indiscriminate growth of branches witnessed during 2nd World War.The relevant Act was named Banking Companies (Restriction of Branches) Act, 1946. The policy has been successful in restricting the number of branches in urban areas and thus preventing financial deepening,ensuring lack of competition and fat NIMs(Net Interest Margins) that are one of the highest in the world.

• RBI has become progressively aggressive in restricting the branch expansions in urban areas.One would presume,prior to 1946 there was no restriction on opening branches. In 1962, Banks were allowed to open 2 branches in an area of their choice for every branch opened in an nonviable/unprofitable area. This ratio became 1:1 in 1968. In 1970 this ratio was made 1:2 for Banks with 60% branches in rural or semi urban areas and 1:3 for rest. In 1977 this was changed to 1:4 plus 1 branch in a metro.

• In 1990, RBI considered the then prevailing 60000 branches to be adequate to meet Banking requirements. 1 Branch per 15-20 villages or average population per Branch(APPB) of 17000 was also considered adequate then. In 1990 RBI decided to leave it to the judgement of the individual banks to assess the need for additional branches taking into account factors such as business potential and financial viability.

• Despite this decision and 'achievements',for some strange reasons(inertia might be one) policy remained unchanged till 2005 when RBI bettered 1962 with a ratio of 3:1 by mandating 25% of the new branches to be in rural areas.

• Importantly,agriculture's share in GDP declined from 58% in 1950 to 38% in 1980 and about 18% currently.So as RBI became more and more adamant on rural branches,their relative attractiveness kept on declining.

• Apart from the existing category of underbanked districts,the group has created a new category of financially excluded districts numbering 256. A financially excluded district is one in which average population per branch is 19272 and has a credit gap of more than 95%. One may wonder what is special about 19272.This is our national APPB.There are two implications,1)since about half of the districts will always be below average,the policy can continue in perpetuity. 2)Despite the success of Branch 'expansion' policy, our APPB has actually declined from the time RBI declared success in 1990.

• The financially excluded include state capitals and industrial cities such as these: Ahmedabad, Patna, Jaipur, Raipur, Hisar, Panipat, Ranchi, Kolhapur, Allahbad, Gautam Buddha Nagar ,Lucknow, Meerut.This list might make some bankers happy but a clause governing underbanked districts is likely to apply to financially excluded districts as well.The clause states that centers falling within municipal limits of State Capital, a Metropolitan Centre or a District Headquarters or 100kms from 4 metro cities will be excluded from the relaxation.

• A category of underbanked states has been created which is also defined as those with APPB below national average. Since some states will always be below average, this list too shall also exist in perpetuity and consists of undivided Bimaru states(except Uttaranchal)+NE+Orissa and West Bengal.

• The group states that most of the emerging economies require licensing for Bank branches but does not spell out how liberal these countries are in allowing new branches and what are the criterion used. The group also notes that none of the developed countries require licensing for new branches.Should we follow emerging economies or developed?

• The recommendations do not apply to Foreign banks.

Besides some obvious benefits of scrapping the policy, the group does offer some rationale for continuing with the policy:

• The present Policy allows RBI to exercise its judgement or (opaque discretion).
• The present Policy allows RBI to meet with CEOs of the banks and discuss with them critical regulatory matters.In absence of the policy, the CEOs might not want to meet RBI.Brilliant.
• There can be systemic implications of having too many branches as exhibited by current crisis and the policy is a good substitute for enforcing prudential norms though other means. what are the systemic implications implied?How does the current crisis exhibit that?Did the current crisis come about because there are just too many bank branches in cities like New York and London?

Some counter-factual questions: Could we have had our own Rabo bank if our regulators did not have such good intentions?
Could we have had 100% financial inclusion in urban areas similar to 100% teledensity that we achieved recently in Metros if RBI did not insist of Branch expansion as per its directions?
Will more competition in urban areas force banks to mediate larger number of financial instruments like Mutual Funds,Insurance and Pension?

Economic return of investing in Excellence in Education

ISB Hyderabad's first class started on July 1, 2001 and it was established at a budget of Rs 200 crores and a new campus is being setup at Mohali with a budget of Rs 300 crores. ISB is scheduled to enhance its intake to 600 for the academic year 2010.Even in the current difficult economic environment, ISB had a good placement record adding an average of Rs8lakh to the existing CTC per student. Given that this was about 25% lower than the previous year owing to the recession,one can safely assume that ISB will continue to add Rs 10lakh to the existing CTC per student in perpetuity.By their very nature, the capabilities of a knowledge institution only improve with time and hence would likely add more value per student going forward.

Thus,ISB is contributing a minimum economic value of Rs 60crore(600 X 10lakh) per year.If we assume a life of 100 years(though good Institutions are known to last many centuries) for this Institution, a fixed investment of Rs 200 crore gave a return of Rs 6000 crore,an astounding 300 times. Can any venture capital fund gives this much assured return? Government of India, although did not contribute in this endeavour, by way of financing, will get Rs2000 crore as Income Tax only.What other asset class gives this much assured return?
And these are just monetary returns.The value added like executive education, manament development programs, research, conferences and incubation of startups cannot be quantified. The returns that society get from the intellectual capital added and the leadership role these invididuals will play are immeasurable.Is there any better public service other than promoting excellence in education?
ISB, here, is just a template and can be replaced with any institute of excellence be it IISc for Science, IITs for technology or AIIMS for Medicine.Despite the benefits that excellence in education entails,such endeavours continue to face delays such as this.

A related link describes GoIs intended investment in Institutes of Excellence. But this is not enough. Private sector needs to pitch in a big way. What we should have at the very least is to give 100% Income Tax exemption to any contribution to any Institute that meets the crietrion of excellence.

Bonus Shares:Whiten money,lighten tax bag

A little more details further to the previous post.As is clear from the previous post, the bonus shares do create capital loss for the purpose of tax calculation while no actual capital loss may have occur ed.This must not have been a big issue when our capital markets were small and ratio of Market Cap to GDP was low.Due to the fact that Reliance is the biggest publicly listed company in India,the government can potentially lose out on more than Rs20k crore of taxes due to the artificial capital losses generated by this bonus issue.To put things in perspective,this amount is about 20% of the total personal income tax receipts last year. If all the 30 sensex companies were to undertake the same exercise with their current free float market cap at 12 lakh crore rupees,this would create fake capital losses of 6lakh crore rupees which will be about twice the total direct tax collections made last year.Its bewildering to understand how Indian money in Swiss accounts gets so much attention while such big loopholes stare us. Ironically, the bonus issue is being greeted with great joy and welcomed as a gift and token of value creation.

That said,lets return to the alchemical world of converting black into white.Apart from the capital gains that are legitimate being set off against fake capital gains,one can create fake capital gains and set off them against fake capital losses. Some examples:

1. Ram's friend Teja has accounted income in form of say salaries but unaccounted expenditure for example on foreign trips,luxury,art etc. Ram can transfer the black money in cash to Teja and Teja can buy Ram's land at inflated price thus creating fake capital gains.
2. Ram can transfer the money abroad via Hawala or other routes which Teja can borrow, say through FIIs, to buy Ram's land.Also an NRI can also buy Ram's land through the transferred money.
3. Ram's money need not be in India in the first place. It might already be resting in some Swiss account.A foreign entity can buy Ram's land using this money.

The possibilities are too many and time is ripe. In a reset world, returns on investment on white money are much more than black. The Noose is tightening on Swiss banks. Very many politicians/bureaucrats and other benign souls would be thanking Mr ambani for this opportunity.

Some friends have asked how can there be short terms gains taxed at 15%. Wont they get squared against the short term losses. The answer is that the bonus exercise may get stretched upto December.One can book the short term capital losses in this financial year,hedge for remaining months of this financial year and book short term capital gains in next financial year. Yes, there will be additional transaction costs besides those mentioned previously including stamp duty on land which is about 5% and brokerage costs involved in hedging which are relatively miniscule.

One does not know when and why this loophole arose in our taxation strucure but the earlier we get rid of this, the better.

PS: A related article in Business Standard by Kanu Doshi,a CA , explains that law was amended to plug this hole for mutual funds and not for stocks. The law in that case requires the units be either purchased 3 months prior to record date or be held for 9 months after the record date. Why cant law be amended to treat bonus shares at par with stock split for capital gains purposes?

Bonus shares:Vehicle for whitening black money

RIL has recently announced a bonus share in the ratio of 1:1. RIL has a market cap of about 3 lakh crore rupees with 47% being held by promoters. On issue of the bonus shares, the shares will trade at about half their current price ex bonus.This Business Standard article from april 2004 explains in detail how Bonus shares can be used to create short term capital loss which can be set off against any capital gains.A relevant excerept from article from Income Tax Office,Banglore:

Loss from transfer of a short term Capital Asset can be set off against gain from transfer of any other capital asset(Long Term or Short Term) in the same year. Loss from transfer of a Long term Capital Asset can be set off against gain from transfer of any other long term Capital Asset in the same year.

If there is a net loss under the head “Capital Gains” for an assessment year, the same cannot be set off against any other head of income viz., Salaries, House Property, Business/Profession or Other Sources. It has to be separated into Short term Capital Loss(STCL) and Long Term Capital Loss (LTCL) and carried forward to next assessment year. In the next year, the STCL can be set off against any gains from transfer of any capital asset (Long term or Short term) and LTCL can be set off against gains from transfer of long term capital asset only. Any unabsorbed loss after such set off can be further carried forward to next assessment year.

Capital loss computed in an assessment year can be carried forward for eight assessment years and set off as above.

So lets say Mr Raju buys the RIL share before bonus and sell the original shares immediately after shares go ex-bonus to book short term capital loss. The bonus shares have a NIL cost of acquisition. Now, Raju can either sell the bonus shares and pay a short term capital gains tax @15% or he can hold the bonus shares for a year. He can hedge his risk by selling the RIL shares in forward market and keep on rolling for a year but there too there is cost of capital involved.Assuming he has to pay 25% as the margin money and cost of capital is 15%, the total cost will be 3.75%. Both of these options are much more attractive than standard 30% STCG for non equity capital assets held for less than 3 years.

Since the non promoter holding in RIL is worth about Rs 1.5 lakh crore rupees,there can be about Rs75,000 crore rupees of capital loss available for the taking.Since bulk of the money in country is in form of land,this is a very attractive option for bringing that on the books at its real price.And this is all perfectly legal. This loophole has existed for a long time but RIL being the largest Indian company in terms of Market capitalisation and the ratio of 1:1 probably makes it ptentially the biggest tax amnesty scheme so far.

Finances of States owned PSEs: Power Sector

The consolidated excel sheet has been updated after cleaning and correcting the data in some places.The summary stats for Power sector are here.This post will focus on Power sector.(All numbers are approximate with less significant digits omitted)

Aggregate Data

1. This sector has a turnover of 1.9 lakh crores and employs 7.7 lakh persons. The total accumulated losses for the sector are Rs 32k crores.The turnover per employee is hence Rs 22 lakh. There is a wide variation around this figure with Orissa at the top with Rs 55lakhs in contrast to Rs 6.8 lakhs for Bihar.
2. The two industrial states of Gujarat and Maharashtra have the highest revenue at about Rs 27k crores and 20k crores respectively. Maharashtra has double the number of employees(1.16lakh) of Gujarat(56k).This is clearly reflected in their profitability with Gujarat having a profit of 628 crores(2nd highest in the country) in contrast to Maharshtra's 117 crores.
3. UP comes third with a turnover of Rs 20k crores whose manpower is not completely reported, followed by AP at Rs 18k crores.UP has the distinction of having highest losses and highest accumulated losses at about 2.6k crores and 11k crores respectively.
4. Karntaka and TamilNadu come next with revenue of about 14k crores each.While Karnatka employs 42 thousand; TamilNadu employs almost twice that(78k) .No wonder, Karnatka is making a profit of Rs 462 crores while TN is making a loss of Rs 1328 crores.
5. Further down the list, Haryana has a revenue of 13k crores with an employee base of 33k while next door Punjab earns about half that(Rs 7k crores) with more than double the number of employees (73k ). Punjab's revenue per employee of Rs 9.5 lakhs is only beaten by Bihar(Rs 6.8 lakhs) and Himachal Pradesh (Rs8.6 lakh) . But even than, their percentage losses at 8% and 1% are much less than Punjab's 23%.Hence,Electricity reforms in Punjab are inevitable; despite this.
6. The two mineral rich states of Orissa and Chhatisgarh have the highest profit margins of 19% and 10% respectively with Kerala coming a distant third at 5%.However,there is considerable scope for the latter two states to cut the flab having Revenue per employee of only Rs 17 lakhs and Rs 24 lakhs respectively in contrast to Orissa's Rs55lakhs.
   

Company level data
There are total 93 companies in power sector 14 of which have not reported any accounts.

Turnover

1. There are 46 companies with revenues of more than Rs 1kcrore aggregating to 1.77lakh crores
2. There are 32 companies with revenues of more than 2kcrore aggregating to 1.56lakh crores
3. There are 14 companies with revenues of more than 4kcrores aggregating to 1.05lakh crores
4. There are 4 companies with revenues of more than 10kcrores aggregating to 50kcrores

Profit
There are total 41 companies that are profitable earning a total of 5128crore rupees. Of these:

1. 14 companies earn more than 100crores totalling 4516crores
2. 8 companies earn more than 200crores totalling 3616crores
3. 3 companies earn more than 500crores totalling 2317crores

Losses
There are total 33 loss making companies making total losses of Rs 8044 crore.UP alone accounts for 1/3rd of these losses with Punjab and TamilNadu accounting for another 1/3rd.

1. 19 companies are making losses of more than Rs 50 crores totalling 7707 crores
2. 16 companies are making losses of more than Rs 200 crores totalling 7397 crores
3. 10 companies are making losses of more than Rs300 crores totalling 5934 crores
4. 3 companies are making losses of more than Rs3546 crores totalling 3546 crores

This short summary clearly demonstrates that some states have just too many employees and they are a serious roadblock to reforms of this sector.The 6th pay commission is only going to aggravate the situation.Just to put things in perspective,revenue per employee of private sector Tata Power Company at more than Rs1.5 crores is more than triple that of best performer of state owned Power companies. For worst performers like Punjab,Bihar and Himachal this figure is ranges from 15 to 25 times. This, simply, is not sustainable.