Some observations on Kashmir

The politics and strategic aspects of Kashmir get a disproportionately higher attention in popular discourse than the Economic and development aspects.I have always wondered why people are only worried about political rights and not their economic well being? If you are poor and marginalized you will be trampled over. If you are powerful, the world will listen to you. The times when revolution came out of a barrel of gun are long gone.
I recently had a conversation on twitter in this respect. Here is brief elaboration and some more on the points I made in that conversation:

1. Jammu and Kashmir has very limited fiscal resources of its own. Of its GSDP of Rs 54000 crore last year, government spending constituted 50% of this amount and of that amount, central assistance constituted 50%. To put the above figure in perspective, India's largest software company has more revenues than the entire state of J&K. It employs less people than are born in J&K every year.
2. The budget stresses a lot on Subsidies and tax exemptions. This only increases corruption and reduces revenue collection. At the same time, there is toll on entry into any district. This only increases traffic congestion and the roads are not even properly maintained. This only increases the disgust of people with government and restricts economic activity.
3. The School Education scenario is similar to rest of the country as per DISE data whereas professional education is way behind. A significant number of students are taking private tuition. Empirical data on street does not tally with DISE data. Why not devolve Primary Education to Local communities?
4. There are only a handful engineering and medical colleges and no Institute of national repute in higher learning.Perhaps J&K would be the most backward state in terms of Professional education.Instead of lobbying for sparing the lives of terrorists, government should spend political capital in bringing Institutes of excellence to state.Their presence has a disproportionate impact compared to investment involved.
5. There has been little investment in physical infrastructure in recent years and vital connectivity projects have been running decades behind. Even after so many year of  being 'integral part of India', economy of J&K is not integrated with rest of the country.
6. Like most of the other states, Hydro power is severly underutilised. While delay in other states can be somewhat understood, in a resource deficient and insurgency hit state like J&K bordering Pakistan , it is downright criminal.
7. Though the state government has privatised the ticket collection for tourist places in Srinagar, there is no upkeep of these places. Heaps of muck can be seen in Shalimar and Nisat and architecture has been disfigured with Lovers Letters.
8. There are some high potential tourist spots in the state which can be developed with minimal expenditure. e.g. just cleaning up the Manasbal lake will create a new tourist hotspot more popular than Dal. Not every tourist can afford the private taxis. A tourist bus service will tremendously boost affordability thereby increasing tourist flow. The existing buses are too crowded and operate to limited areas without any proper signages. 
9. A lot people in India passionately believe that abolishing Sector 370 will fix the Kashmir issue. The main thrust of this article is that non domicile people cannot by land in the state. This is true of many states and areas of India e.g. Uttaranchal and tribal areas. That has not stopped those areas from developing though as even if the land cannot be bought, it can be taken on long lease of , say, 99 years. Despite article 370, some Indian companies have setup call centers and Pharmaceutical industries in the state.What prevents the outside investment is, the long term unpredictability of returns because of the political risk. If even the original inhabitants of Kashmir, the Kashimiri Pandits, are afraid of returning, how can others be expected to settle down in Kashmir.

Medical Education in India: A Synopsis

This is a compilation of the most up to date data on Medical education in India:

1. Medical Education(Doctors) Summary:This document contains the number of seats available in each Indian State in all systems of medicine: Allopathy (MBBS and BDS) and AYUSH(Ayurveda, Unani, Siddha and Homepathy).

2.Pharmacy Education Summary: This document contains the number of seats available per State in colleges that award Degrees and Diploma in Pharmacy as also those that only conduct the courses that lead to a Degree or Diploma.

3. Nursing Education Summary: This document contains the number of seats in BSc Nursing and Post Basic Nursing programs per State.

4. Medical Education Summary: This document contains the summary of the above data along with references.

The data has been collected from respective governing bodies homepages and appropriate references are provided. Related and similar data is available on Ministry of Health and Family Welfare but that is not complete from the point of view of available educational opportunities in Medical Sector. The references in document point to complete List of respective colleges along-with their contacts and addresses.

Some Observations:

1. There is huge inequality in availability of opportunities for Students across States as exhibited by following graphs:

The first image shows the number of Seats in Medical Stream per thousand students in Standard 1 presently. This captures, the inequality with respect to overall population of a State irrespective of the learning environment and outcomes that make a Student eligible to lay claim to these opportunities.

The second image shows the number of Seats available per thousand Students passing out of 12th Class. This can be a reflection on better opportunities available in some states as also poor Graduation Candidate Ratio in other states. In Karnataka both are extreme and hence disproportionately higher number of opportunities available for Karnataka Students. If we contrast the two images, we get an idea that increasing retention at the Secondary level puts pressure on the availability of higher education opportunities even in Backward States like Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Rajasthan.

These extreme inequalities also indicate that their is no such concept called India as far as Medical Education is concerned with some big states like Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal along-with North Eastern States barely visible on the first graph. Just 4 States: Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu constituting just about 20% of India's population account for about 1.3 lakh out of about 2.4 lakh Seats across India.

2. The educational opportunities in Medical sector (predictably) has a high correlation with health infrastructure as well. In absence of adequate data on number of beds or doctors or Clinical establishment per State, we can probably use Blood banks as a proxy. The 5 States of Andhra, Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu have 1085 out of total 2347 Blood banks in the country. If we look at Eye Banks, these 5 States again come up trumps with 306 of the 586 Eye Banks in the country present in these States.

3. Looking at Mental health, the top states again dominate with 1364 out of 2294 psychiatrists. Contrast this with just 12 in Madhya Pradesh, 15 in Chattisgarh, 19 in Odisha and 28 in Bihar. True, in most states,including top 5, number of psychiatrists available is less than half required in case of most of the rest it is not even 10%. The number of Psychiatrists, Clinical Psychologists and Psychiatric Social workers that we need are 10261, 14057 and 20194 respectively while the availability is 2294, 355 and 294 respectively.

4. Though it is Kerala which is famous for its Kerala Ayurveda, number of Seats in Ayurveda for Kerala is just 896 which is less than a third of those in neighboring Karnataka and less than a fourth of those in Maharashtra.However Kerala if famous for good reason, notwithstanding number of students admitted, Kerala leads with 124 Ayurvedic Hospitals and 740 dispensaries in contrast to Karnataka's 130+561 and Maharashtra's 55+469 Hospitals+Dispensaries.

5. Bihar accompanies Madhya Pradesh as the only States where number of Seats in Homeopathy is more than those in MBBS. The former is 830 and 1755 respectively while latter number is 660 for Bihar and 1070 for MP. It is Maharashtra though which has the highest number of Homeopathy colleges(49) admitting 3596 students which is close to its 41 MBBS colleges admitting 4570 students.

6.Just 3 States: Andhra, Karnataka and Maharashtra account for half of the Diploma/Degree Seats in Pharmacy i.e. 38680 out of 77195.

7. Karnataka churns out 1/4th of all Indian nurses with 18958 seats out of all India 74356. In contrast, the 19 States from bottom have less than half that number of total Seats.

8.Uttar Pradesh tops the number of Seats in the Unani System of medicine with 220 out of 620 Seats across India.

School Education in India:An Integrated picture

Despite the well recognized challenge and payoffs of Human Development and education attainment, it is hard to find a single report or data source that gives an overall picture of educational attainment for India. If at all, the data is available with a time lag of 3 years by which time Indian economy might grow 30% rendering it obsolete. This blog had earlier looked at state level data about Engineering education. Continuing further, this article and the associated document describes the overall Statewise education scenario for India from enrollments in Class 1 upto statistics about number of students passing out of Class 12th. The data source is primarily DISE and the newspaper reports about the results of different State and Central Examination boards. The document also contain the enrollment and qualification data by gender by using the

Gender based Exam results publications. The latest available enrollment data for upper primary is for Year 2007-08 and hence compatible and comparable with the Matriculation results of current year 2009-10. But the data for Intermediate classes cannot be strictly compared to that for matriculation due to 2 year lag and hence can only be indicative of broad picture.

Here are some interesting observations:

1. Karnataka, home state of the knowledge capital of India, Bangalore has a GCR(Graduation Candidature ratio) of 17.83 just marginally less worse than the most backward state Madhya Pradesh in this regard which has a GCR of 17.96. This means only 1 out of 10 students in his age group attains the eligibility to apply for admission to a college. Delhi is the best state on this count with a GCR of 64.4 with Tamil Nadu a distant 2nd at 55.79 and Himachal 3rd with GCR of 48.26
2. Gujarat,an otherwise economically advanced state has a shockingly low GER of 54% at upper primary level resulting in a poor GCR of 23.30%. Only States that have a worst Upper primary GER than Gujarat are UP and Bihar. In terms of GCR, Gujarat is 6th worst among all States.
3. At all India level there were 1.64 Crore students in upper primary and surprisingly 1.66Crore students in Matric level.This partly indicates inaccuracy in DISE numbers and partly a high number of repeaters and overaged students.Noteable high ratio of Upper Primary to matric are UP-1.61 and Jharkhand-1.24. This means that for every 10 matric students, there were 6 students in 8th Class in UP and 8 students in Jharkhand. Given that both of these states have passing rate of about 70%, even if we accept all 30% who failed are repeating where are the extra 30% in UP coming from?Certainly,UP did not experience any population boom induced by some astrologically auspicious phenomenon or any immigration shock.
4. There were total 96.6 lakh students in 12th Class out of which 77.5 lakhs passed.Since there are about 8.6 Lakh engineering seats,every 9th Graduation candidate can opt for engineering.
5. The overall pass percentage hides the poor pass percentage in constiuent disciplines in some States. For example, in case of Jharkhand, Science pass percentage was is 30.33 though overall pass percentage is 50.39.
6. The matriculation pass percentage of Jharkhand has dropped from 87% in 2008 to 74.3% in 2010. Jharkhand is probably the only state to witness so much deterioration in Education attainment while most of the States have improved theirs. Chief Minister Shibu Soren was perhaps the only Chief Minister to personally release the result.
7. Similar to Gujarat, West Bengal has a low ratio of students reaching potential graduation stage at 22.51 inconsistent with its image of an intellectuals' state.
8. The national capital seems to have the best educational infrastructure what with 64.44% students attaining graduation candidature but this is tempered by the fact that there is only 1 engineering seat per 30 students passing out of 12th class as against the national average of 1:9
9. Kerala is at the top in terms of gender parity with 72% of 12th students being girls whereas the ratio is almost inverted for the state on the other end of spectrum Rajasthan with 35% of students being girls.
10. In Punjab,a state with a very low sex ratio, 56% of the students in 10th class are girls whereas the last state on this count is Gujrat with only 37% girl students in 10th class.
11. Leadership of Tamilnadu in education is exhibited by 115% GER in upper primary, 80% of them transitioning to matric, pass percentage of both 10th and 12th standard being in 80s and 2nd highest number of Engineering seats among all States.
12. Some of the north eastern states like Tripura and Manipur have a greater number of graduation candidates than better known Goa.
13. The number of children in 8th standard is only about half of the number in 1st standard despite an upper primary GER of 75% for All India.
14. In case of Jharkhand there are 5 students in 1st standard for every student in Class 8th and Jharkhand only has a GER of 57 for upper primary.
15. A happy thing to note is that there are at least 9 states where number of students in 1st standard is lesser than those currently in 8th and there are 3 others where this gap is less than 10%. Hence,the next generation in these States is likely to get better educational facilities. BIMARU states are still not out of the woods and need to invest more in primary education going forward given the high ratio of number of students currently entering the School system to those in upper primary.